Chapter 367: Two Bankruptcy Countries

Palace of vienna
Foreign Minister Weisenberg said with a smile: "His Majesty, in order to seek our support, the conditions for both Russia and Russia are almost the same.
The Russians promised Silesia after the war if we supported them; Prussia promised to cede Silesia after the war as long as we remained neutral. "
The Russians promised to be generous to others, and the Tsarist government would not mind buying Austria in the interests of Prussia.
The Berlin government promised that it was forced to do nothing, and they were not willing to give up Silesia. To win the war, they must stabilize Austria.
After winning the war, their efforts can be doubled back; if they lose the war, Galicia cannot keep it.
Despite all these years, the Austrians still have a grudge against Silesia. Especially in recent years, with the increase of strength, the call of the Vienna government to withdraw from Silesia has become increasingly high.
Once the Prussian kingdom becomes weak, Austria will surely fall. Now the Berlin government has to stabilize Austria.
Looking at Felix, who was still talking, Franz asked, "What does the Prime Minister think?"
The Prime Minister Felix replied: "Your Majesty, neither of these is the best choice. What we need is a general defeat for both Russia and Russia.
Now our alliance with the Russians is very eye-catching, and European countries are working to split this alliance. If the tsarist government continues to triumph, we will only have more trouble in the future.
For us, the Russian Empire is strong enough now. If the Tsarist government completes its internal reforms, it will be hard to say if the Russian-Olympic alliance has any value.
Likewise, a stronger Prussian kingdom is not in our interest. Europe is too small to accommodate so many powers. "
This is the most ideal state in which both Russia and Russia are defeated. Not only can the reform of Alexander II be interrupted by the hands of the Prussians, making the reform of the Tsarist government more incomplete than in history; at the same time, it can also interrupt the ambitions of the Prussians. After this failure, they have no chance of rising again. .
But it is very difficult to achieve this, at least Franz does not think Austria has the ability to play this balance.
The Prussian kingdom is lost once it is lost. On the surface, the Russians can lose many times. In fact, this is very false. There are too many internal problems in the Tsarist government, and Franz is not sure of their loss tolerance.
This is not the same as the Near East War. At that time, the Russian army hit Constantinople at the door. All classes in the country were supporting the war. No matter how great the loss of the Tsarist government, they must insist.
Franz thought for a while and said, "Stop this idealistic plan. It's easy to crash. The last two sides are not flattering.
According to actual needs, we only need to do two things:
1. Use the Prussians to disrupt the reform of the Tsarist government. As long as the Russians cannot win in a short period of time, Alexander II will give in to the conservatives, and this reform will not be thorough;
Second, the Kingdom of Prussia cannot be enlarged, and a strong country in the German region is enough. There is no need to add another competitor.
The matter of strengthening Prussia's strength can let Britain and France do it. All we have to do is to transfuse the Tsarist government when necessary and strengthen their determination to fight. "
It is impossible to please the two ends. If it is done that way, the final result is mostly two-phase rejection, and people inside and out are not people.
The role of the Russian-Australian alliance is declining, but without a day's lifting of the covenant, Austria cannot openly stab the Russians.
This is related to Austria's credibility in international politics and diplomacy. A country without credibility should never want to gain everyone's respect.
Fortunately, the Prussian government was smart enough to play without declaring war and not invade Russia, otherwise Austria was dragged into the war under the covenant.
The situation now is that the Prussian kingdom invaded Denmark, and the Russians declared war on the Prussian kingdom in order to protect this younger brother.
This situation is not within the scope of the Russian-Austrian alliance that must participate in the war.
The Kingdom of Denmark is an ally of the Russians, which does not mean that they are also an ally of Austria. The Vienna government does not need to stand with the Russians.
Chancellor of the Exchequer Carl reminded: "His Majesty, the tsarist government's finances are very bad, and the Russians have been slow to move, largely due to financial constraints.
Not long ago, bonds issued by the Tsarist government were cold in the capital market, and investors feared that the Russians would default on their accounts.
According to the analysis of the data we have, if the Russians' finances have not improved, the tsarist government may declare bankruptcy again. "
The Russian-Austrian alliance has stipulated that it must be obliged to provide material assistance to its allies without prejudice to its own interests.
Theoretically, how can the Vienna government help in this case? This is a matter of selectivity. However, how to support it depends on the actual situation.
Providing loans is aid, and donating materials is also aid. The specific situation depends on benefits.
Without enough benefits, just picking up some weapons and ammunition from the warehouse can also cope with the past.
The attitude of the Chancellor of the Treasury is very obvious, that is, the tsarist government's finances are very bad, it is very likely that it will go bankrupt after the war, and Austria does not need to jump this pit.
Fiscal bankruptcy is never new in continental Europe. In particular, the Tsarist government will declare bankruptcy once the government debt exceeds its capacity.
The bankruptcy of the government means that the previous debts were suspended indefinitely, which can also be understood as not paying back. This kind of thing has been done much by the Tsarist government, and many creditors have been weeping without tears.
Of course, not every country is eligible for debt collection. In this era, there is another way to collect money: to collect debt by force.
Even if a small country declares bankruptcy, it usually only depends on personal debt, and the debts of the major powers have to be repaid. For example, the major powers supervise their finances.
Mexico is a negative example. If you do n’t have the strength, you dare to learn from others. In 1862, President Juarez announced a moratorium on debt payments, and then French creditors killed him.
This method does not work for the Russians, and no creditor has the ability to kill St Petersburg for money. After the number of pits increased, no one in the capital market lent money to the Tsar.
Franz asked in amazement: "Russian finances have deteriorated to this extent?"
In his memory, although the tsarist government's finances were bad, they did not collapse. Even if it is a Russian-Prussian war, it will not go bankrupt immediately.
Chancellor of the Exchequer Carl explained: "His Majesty, in modern times, as long as ordinary European countries can persist, they will try their best to repay their debts, and rarely rely on accounts, but the Russians are the exception.
Based on past experience, the Tsarist government's debt has reached a certain level, and they will declare bankruptcy. We recently collected information that the Tsarist government has prepared a bankruptcy plan. "
Franz had nothing to say. In fact, in the Middle Ages, the king declared bankruptcy and ransacks, and came almost every few decades.
Many capitalists have been wailed, with Jewish capitalists being the most pitted. This is too rich. Most of the money is collected in their hands. Whom do you want to borrow money from?
Of course, there are many kings being pitted. Jewish capital hates people because they often bury nails in loan contracts, and many kings who borrow money are fooled and pay a lot of extra interest.
Facts have proven that the rule is not easy to mess with, especially in the monarchy era, the money to dare to lie to them has to pay a price. Most of the anti-Semitic movements in continental Europe come from this.
In the modern era, the power of capital has continued to grow, and governments of various countries have become less and less accountable through bankruptcy. In particular, international loans with a background in the powers have been more reluctant.
It is naturally irrelevant when we all settle accounts together, anyway, the crows in the world are generally black. But all of a sudden others start to obey the rules, and you are left alone to stand out.
As soon as the creditors publicized, the credibility of the Tsarist government was so over. Without credibility, many things are not easy to handle, only the awkward situation of Russians using gold and silver coins.
Franz thought for a while and said, "Then we will tighten the external bank and remind the domestic financial community to be more vigilant.
Support for the Russians was mainly in kind. All large loans to Russia must be collateralized. "
This can be regarded as a downfall. These restrictions have undoubtedly increased the difficulty of the Tsarist government's financing of the Austrian capital market. However, as long as the tsarist government does not settle its debts, no matter how much collateral is provided.
With collateral, even if the Russians declare bankruptcy, they cannot rely on these debts. After all, the value of collateral usually exceeds that of a loan.
Franz also had to do it. You must know that not long ago, the Tsarist government used Alaska to offset the debt of 257 million Aegis, and also owed a personal favor. The Russians would definitely not do this if it weren't really able to hold it.
...
When Austria was worried about the Russian bankruptcy, the London government also faced the same problem. As the poorest armed country in continental Europe, the Kingdom of Prussia was not the rich owner.
Now lending money to the Berlin government is no less risky than lending to the Russians. War bonds issued by the Berlin government have been cold on the London financial market.
If the Kingdom of Prussia wins, it may still be worth the money; if the Kingdom of Prussia loses, or loses both, these investments are lost.
Not many people are optimistic about Prussia, and everyone is unwilling to take money to take risks. Even if the bond interest has increased to 15.8% per annum, sales are still not optimistic.
As the king of the Prussian kingdom, the London government naturally cannot watch this happen. Without enough money, what will the Kingdom of Prussia do to fight this war?
Finance Minister Agarwal said: "We have issued war bonds to the Prussians. So far, only 1.869 million pounds have been sold, which is too far from the 15 million issue amount.
The people are not optimistic that they can win the war, and unless someone can provide them with a guarantee, the bond will not be sold.
Prussian finances are very bad, and they have been running deficits since 1848.
Many domestic financial institutions believe that Prussian finance is on the verge of bankruptcy and refuse to provide them with loans. "
The gold master is not good, this is to invest in real gold and silver. The cost of the Russian-Prussian War is bound to be a huge expense, and the possibility of losing everything is still very high.
Prime Minister John Russell rubbed his forehead and said, "So, we have not promised to raise one fifth of the aid in the two months in Prussia?"
According to the agreement, the British will provide a loan of 10 million pounds to the Kingdom of Prussia, plus the issue of 15 million pounds of war bonds.
The reality is that with the exception of the London government's advance of £ 5 million to the Prussian government, there is no one in the capital market.
This is the aftermath of the Near East War. Both Britain and France did not win the Russians, let alone the Kingdom of Prussia?
Even the London government does not believe that the Kingdom of Prussia can win this war. To support them, it was only to interrupt the Russian reforms, not to hope that the kingdom of Prussia would win.
"Yes, Your Excellency the Prime Minister. Everyone has no confidence in Prussia, so they are more cautious when investing." Finance Minister Agarwal replied
The British people still support the Prussian kingdom against the Russians, but it is not the same when it comes to paying for it.
Some London newspapers are betting when the Kingdom of Prussia will fail.
The most optimistic estimate is only that the Kingdom of Prussia can sustain a year and then lose the war; the most pessimistic is that the Berlin government will surrender in less than a month.
It is widely believed that the Kingdom of Prussia will win this war, unless Britain and France participate in the war themselves, otherwise failure is only a matter of time.
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