Vol 2 Chapter 648: On the steel industry

"The title of the chief is too big. I was not prepared, and I was worried that I would not speak well." Qin Hai replied embarrassed.
Based on Qin Hai's knowledge level and his experience in the materials industry over the years, it is actually qualified to express some views on the country's materials industry strategy. But this kind of words have to be told to everyone. If it is a report in the School of Materials, Qin Hai will not hesitate, and he is confident that the experts will be convinced; It's embarrassing to say the wrong thing. Secondly, in case some places are not thoughtfully considered and misled the decision of the head, his guilt will be great.
The head saw Qin Hai's thoughts, he waved his hand gently, and said, "It doesn't matter. If you tell me, you can say it. It doesn't matter if you say something wrong."
Qin Haidao: "The main reason is that I don't know in advance that the chief wants me to report this problem, otherwise I will make some preparations."
The chief laughed: "I intentionally did not let people notify you in advance. If you are prepared in advance, I am afraid that everyone in all aspects will let you preach, I am afraid it is rare to hear the truth. You should not have any psychological burden Let's just chat casually, I heard Ji Lao said, aren't you very relaxed when you chat with him? "
"Then ... then I dare to say something simple." Qin Hai said. He originally wanted to say that chatting with Ji Lao was not the same as in front of the chief. After careful consideration, it seemed that he couldn't find anything different. Although Ji Lao is a retired leader, after all, he can influence decision-making. He dares to speak freely in front of Ji Lao. What is necessary to hide in front of the head?
Thinking of this, Qin Hai prepared for a few minutes, then sat upright and said, "Since the chief wants to test me, let me talk about my views. If it's wrong, ask the chief for criticism."
"Well, you say it." The chief nodded. Spread a note paper in front of me, and took out a pencil. Be prepared to write down some ideas at any time. The chief's secretary gave Qin Hai a cup of tea, and then he sat next to him and spread out his notebook. Detailed recording was done by him.
"My report preparation is divided into three parts." Qin Hai calmed down and said in a calm tone: "First, the status of the material industry; second, the characteristics of the development of the material industry; third, China's development of the material industry Policy orientation. Do you think this is OK? "
"Very well," the chief answered with a smile. "Though you say as you think, there is no right or wrong here."
"First of all, I want to briefly introduce the status of the material industry in the national economy ..."
Qin Hai started talking and talking. At the beginning, he was a little nervous, but as he talked, he entered the state, completely forgetting the status of the audience in front of him. He was not originally a member of the system. He always looked down on the hierarchy in the officialdom, even in front of the chief. He also does not have the feeling of sincerity and horror, only knowing that the other party is a person who can influence the development of the country's material industry, and he hopes to use his own ideas to influence the decision maker.
"In the next 20 years, China will usher in a period of blowout of material needs. We will build highways over 100,000 kilometers, high-speed railways over 10,000 kilometers, and residential and commercial floors over billions of square meters. These The construction requires hundreds of millions of tons of steel, cement, and an equally large amount of glass, building ceramics, aluminum alloys, and polymer materials. The demand for these materials can only be met by expanding domestic production capacity. Provide, then it will be subject to others, which is very passive. "Qin Hai said.
"In the past two or three years, the domestic steel and cement production capacity has increased rapidly. I have read the report provided by the Planning Commission, and the country ’s steel production capacity has reached 150 million tons. Do you think this is considered excessive production capacity?" The director interjected .
Qin Hai shook his head firmly and said, "It's still far behind. According to our group's calculations. If there is no special situation in the country's economic development, at the current rate of development, domestic steel demand will reach 2005 With more than 400 million tons, and the existing 150 million tons capacity, there is still a gap of more than 250 million tons to meet this demand. "
"Why, do you think there was a demand for 400 million tons of steel in China in 2005?" The director looked at Qin Hai and asked.
The steel industry is an important pillar industry of the national economy, and the head of the industry is naturally very concerned about this industry. The Ministry of Machinery, the Planning Commission, the Academy of Social Sciences and other institutions have done analysis and forecast of steel supply and demand. Qin Hai said that the steel demand in 2005 will reach more than 400 million tons, and the head has also seen it. However, most institutions are dismissive of the figure of 400 million tons, and their boldest prediction is limited to 200 million tons. According to this figure, the current development speed of the domestic steel industry seems too fast.
Hearing the statement that Qin Hai actually supported 400 million tons, the head was surprised. Although he had only had one frontal contact with Qin Hai before, he usually heard a lot about Qin Hai. He also knew that Qin Hai was not a man who opened his mouth. If Qin Hai believes that there will be a demand for 400 million tons of steel each year in the future, it means that many of the country's related policies on the development of the steel industry will need to be re-evaluated.
In the mid-1990s, China was on the eve of its economic take-off. State-owned enterprises were undergoing unprecedented adjustments. Private capital had just emerged from the straits of the old system and was boldly pouring into various fields. The reform of the housing system has just begun. Unless it is the most imaginative person, no one can foresee a tide of real estate development that will appear in a few years. When people stand back in 2015, they will be shocked by the tremendous changes that have taken place in these 20 years. At this point in time in 1996, even wise elders such as the Chief Minister did not dare to estimate the speed of China's economic development too high.
Just as the head asked Qin Hai before, most people are worried about the development of the domestic steel industry in recent years. They worry that steel production capacity will be too high and there will be oversupply in the future. A severe overcapacity will cause the price of steel to plummet and affect the development of the entire national economy. Qin Hai's view is contrary to everyone. He believes that China's current pace of development of the steel industry is too slow and lacks sufficient vision, which will hinder the entire economy.
"Our group has made a detailed argument. It is judged that by 2005, the domestic market demand for steel will reach more than 400 million tons. I can ask the research department of the group to sort it out and submit it to the head. At present, The state believes there is a misunderstanding on this issue, and a more passive situation will emerge in the future. "Qin Hai said.
The head's expression had calmed down after the initial surprise. He made no remarks about Qin Hai's assertion, but asked calmly: "So, in your opinion, what should the country do in terms of steel production?"
Qin Hai was well thought out on this issue, and he said fluently: "First of all, according to the future steel demand, the issue of iron ore needs to be considered. China lacks high-grade iron ore. Ore must depend on imports. In order to avoid passive import, the state should take the initiative to buy or buy some large iron ore in Australia, Brazil, Bolivia and other countries to ensure that iron ore supply can be held in its own hands. "
"Iron ore." The chief wrote a word on the memo pad before him, then nodded, "What about the second?"
Qin Hai went on to say: "The second is the development of steel equipment, the formulation of steel technology specifications and the training of talents. In the future, our steel must ensure both quantity and quality, as well as environmental protection and efficiency. This requires us Master advanced steel production technology and improve the competitiveness of the steel industry. "
"The second is technology." The head wrote another word. Whether Qin Hai ’s conclusion on the demand for steel is correct needs further demonstration, but these issues of the development of the steel industry raised by Qin Hai will sooner or later have to be faced, so the chief executive listened very carefully.
"The third point is to limit and eliminate backward production capacity and reduce pollution." Qin Hai said.
"Pollution?" The chief's pen fell on the paper, but the word was not written down. In his opinion, the issues of raw material supply and steel smelting technology are both strategic issues and deserve his attention. The problem of pollution is only a tactical matter. It is enough to have environmental protection departments in various places to manage it. Where can I get his own leadership to ask?
"Yes, UU reading www.uukanshu.com is pollution." Qin Hai said earnestly, "Head, don't underestimate the problem of pollution. At present, industrial pollution in our country is increasing, but generally speaking it is not It's serious. But with the further expansion of the industrial scale, especially the large-scale expansion of heavily polluting industries such as steel and cement, the problem of pollution will soon become a major issue that has a global impact.
At present, more than 50 million tons of 150 million tons of steel production capacity in our country come from small and medium-sized enterprises with relatively backward technology. If the production capacity is to be expanded to 400 million tons in the future, it is likely that more than 200 million tons will come from such enterprises. Iron and steel companies with backward equipment are major air pollution users. The pollution caused by 200 million tons of backward production capacity will be unbearable for China and even the entire world. "
"Industrial development will definitely bring pollution. It requires industrial development but does not want to pollute the environment. Is this a bit difficult?" The director said half of a question and a half of a rebuttal.
Qin Haidao: "Secretary, this time I specially asked the director to go to Jintang. The purpose is not only to invite you to participate in the large-scale ethylene feeding ceremony, but also to ask you to inspect Jintang's pollution control in the chemical industry. The results, if possible, can give us affirmation. Jintang's practice shows that economic development and the maintenance of green mountains and rivers can be balanced. "(To be continued)