Vol 3 Chapter 7: Is this guy an idiot?

Is this guy an idiot?
An idea could not help but popped up in the heads of the HSBC group.
HSBC is a global bank chain, and Meri Weather is the chief executive officer of HSBC Holdings Hong Kong and the highest executive director of HSBC in Asia.
He knows better than many people about the real estate market in Southeast Asia.
From 1983 to 1989, after the European economy had continued to grow for seven years, the economy improved, and production would naturally increase. However, as the continuous capital injection promoted the increase in production capacity, the market economy began to experience oversupply.
The European economic growth rate in 1988 was 4.3, but in 1989 it had dropped to 3.3.
The slowdown in economic growth has made many prescient capitals feel the crisis.
This is because history has verified countless times that economic development has cycles. When the contradiction between productive forces and production relations in capitalist society expands, an economic crisis will come.
It is impossible to avoid the economic cycle.
Capital determines the price. When the price goes up, the supply chain will go up driven by profits, and the relationship between supply and demand will expand, including human resources, material resources, and production capacity. When the overcapacity triggers an economic crisis, the industry will be reshuffled.
This is an insurmountable contradiction between the productive forces of capitalist society and the relations of production, and it can also be called a systemic risk.
In 1990, the overall European economy slowed again, and the growth rate dropped to 2.2%.
Capital is ultimately the pursuit of profit. European economies have continued to decline, and liquid capital has begun to target the world.
The U.S. market has just emerged from the economic crisis, but it still has great risks. The Japanese market has experienced a severe crisis and dragged into the bottomless abyss by real estate. Investors who go bankrupt and jump off the building line up on the roof every day.
Only the Southeast Asian countries are in the early stages of development because of low human and resource prices.
In particular, the neon capital of the world's second largest economy continues to be injected into Southeast Asian countries. With these capital injections, the economies of Southeast Asian countries are developing rapidly.
The four countries headed by Thailand, the Philippines, Malaysia, and Indonesia have already had a tendency to catch up with Hong Kong, Singapore and other developed regions, and they are called Asian miracles.
The'Four Little Tigers' and the'Four Little Dragons' stand side by side, showing the world the unlimited potential of Asia.
HSBC's banking data show that in addition to neon, capital from Western Europe is also pouring into emerging market countries in Southeast Asia. The real estate and securities markets in these countries are booming under the impetus of capital.
Almost every week, the securities markets in Southeast Asian countries are rising, and real estate prices are rising continuously.
The data returned by branches of various countries is very clear. The income of residents in these countries has been rising, the growth rate of gDP is changing with each passing day, the number of real estate investors has also continued to increase, the supply of loans is good, and the bad debts of real estate are almost less than 1%.
The momentum is like a rainbow, and the strong development trend is at a glance.
However, some people want to short sell Southeast Asian real estate.
Meri Weather looked at Shen Jiannan with weird eyes.
He was thinking in his heart, is this guy's head fainted, or is his young and frivolous mentality swollen and arrogant to forget the height of the sky and earth?
Take Thailand as an example.
Under the capital injection, Thailand has experienced more than ten years of slow development, and the economy has been advancing with leaps and bounds. In May, the Bank of Thailand lifted restrictions on foreign capital inflows. The capital inflows from HSBC into Thailand every month is in units of 100 million U.S. dollars.
Driven by these capitals, Thailand's seT has continued to rise, and the real estate industry is booming in the early morning, all in an upward cycle.
It can also be understood as trending.
This is an economic law that the capital market cannot violate.
As a senior banker, Meri Weather is well aware of how terrible the periodicity of this economic law is.
History has proved countless times that if you do the right thing with this periodicity, you will die miserably.
The most intuitive manifestation is the securities market, a downward market, like a bomb falling from the sky, whoever dares to pick it up will be blown to pieces.
The rising market is a sharp sword out of its sheath, and it is also a bullet that has just been shot out. If the bullet reaches its maximum range, it is blocked, and it will inevitably be shot to death.
Just like America.
After 1929, the US stock market and real estate industry have risen for 57 consecutive years. In these 57 years, no matter how depressed the US economy is, real estate prices have never really fallen.
Because real estate is the most important asset of any country, all countries will try to protect the stable development of the real estate market at all costs.
It was not until the outbreak of the US financial crisis that the US dollar exchange rate was unstable in 1985 that real estate was dragged into the abyss.
But before that, the U.S. economy has been going down, and the dollar's exchange rate has continued to depreciate, which has already foreseen.
The emerging market countries in Southeast Asia have only a good momentum, and there is no possibility of a sudden real estate collapse.
The same goes for Hong Kong and other countries.
After 1949, Hong Kong's economy has been advancing all the way, and real estate prices have continued to rise.
The reason is very clear to Meri Weather.
Since the emergence of money, human beings have established countless monetary systems. The gold standard, the silver standard to the silver standard, and then to today's credibility standard.
But no matter what kind of currency issuance system, it cannot avoid the final collapse.
The reason is that the human society is a pyramid structure.
In this form, no matter what the currency system is, it will inevitably face the day of collapse.
Human selfishness and greed promote social progress.
With the purchasing power of currency, countless people are allowed to create value for this society.
But everyone's ability is different after all.
Some are smart, some are hardworking, some are stupid, and some are lazy.
For a variety of reasons, the scale of currency issuance will only grow larger and larger until the day it naturally collapses. Because if the amount of currency is not increased, then a fixed amount of currency will make some of them impoverished.
Just as one hundred yuan is allocated to one yuan to one hundred people, if the total amount of money is not expanded, then the final result must be that there are 80 people who are penniless.
But this result is not conducive to the stable development of society.
Therefore, money can only be injected and overissued when it is needed. Only by ensuring that the lowest part of the population can live normally can they create greater value.
Based on this economic and political principle, the circulation of currency will only increase, and the symbol of money will only increase.
Therefore, in theory, prices will only rise.
As for the decline.
It is not impossible, but the probability is very small.
In terms of data and economic theory, the rise can be unlimited, but the fall is ultimately limited. Even if the real estate industry in Japan has collapsed today, the market has reached its limit after decades of continuous growth after the war.
And if you want to go into the reason for it ~EbookFREE.me~, the main reason is that the Japanese government chose to retreat from the rapids, not the trajectory of the market itself.
"Shen. I think our bank needs to discuss it. It will take a while, do you think it's okay?"
"of course."
"Thank you for understanding."
"..."
Soon, Meri Weather and his team sent Shen Jiannan and his party out of the bank. As the lengthened Lincoln's back gradually faded away, he immediately showed the response ability that a top banker should have.
"John. To confirm the data of the real estate market in various countries, we must carefully study the possible risks."
"Ok!"
"......"