Chapter 1140: Prodigal stuff

"In fact, that change did not happen in the future, but in the past. As early as about two years ago, this change had already occurred, but the process was subtle and hidden under the duckweed on the water. On the surface, it is not easy to be noticed, but now, or in the near future, duckweed can no longer cover the increasingly intense dark tide under the water. We are about to usher in a huge wave."
Mahmoud couldn't help but interject: "Erik, do you think that Soviet Russia's foreign policy is about to undergo a major change?"
"Yes, and this change is inevitable."
"Eric, can you explain your reason for making this judgment?" Zia. Huck frowned slightly and asked.
"The reason is that it is complicated and complicated, and there are many factors that play a role in it, but it is actually very simple to say that it is simple, and it can be summarized in one word."
"A word?"
"poor."
"Uh... You said that the root cause of Soviet Russia's change in foreign policy was actually because of poverty?"
"Yes." Tan Zhenhua said sternly: "According to the philosophical theory that China pursues, economy is the foundation and politics is the superstructure. In other words, all political behaviors can find the economic roots from it."
After a pause, he then added:
If you want to analyze the economic dilemma that Soviet Russia is facing now, it may take a long discussion, but in a nutshell, we can summarize it like this-in the past ten years, during the peak period of the Cold War, Soviet Russia adopted an offensive expansion strategy. From the perspective of Pakistani Railways alone, it faced huge security pressure brought by Soviet Russia’s invasion of Afkhan, but we all know that it costs money to fight a war. It would cost a lot of money. Soviet Russia did not get any real economic benefits from Afkhan, but it had to face the huge expenditures caused by the war, such as the consumption of supplies, casualties, and equipment losses. If it can still rely on the accumulated old family to support it, then it will not be able to support it now."
Mahamud shook his head and said, "Erik, we all understand what you said, but you said that Soviet Russia would not be able to support a local war because of lack of money, this..."
"It's not just that it can't support a local war. Soviet Russia's contraction will be all-round. In Southeast Asia, South America, Eastern Europe, and the Far East, in these main strategic directions, Soviet Russia is about to start contracting across the board."
Zia at this time. Huck couldn’t help but intervened and asked:
Eric, this is a major change in the international situation. You have to provide more convincing evidence to make such a judgment. For example, you have to explain that you Why do you think Soviet Russia is poor."
Tan Zhenhua laughed: "Yes, I said Soviet Russia is poor. I am afraid that nine out of ten people in this world disagree, but this is the most basic fact."
He tilted his head for a moment, and then explained: "I just said that at the peak of the Cold War, Soviet Russia adopted an offensive expansion strategy. This is on the bright side and everyone can feel it. What is the most important support point for global deployment? Is its leading level of military technology? I don’t think so. To be honest, I have been in contact with many European and American military enterprises, regardless of their technological level, production efficiency or personnel quality. The Soviet Russians are worse-or even stronger. I am afraid you also feel this. At least, the F16 fighter jets have a leading edge in the face of those combat aircraft sold by the Soviet Russians to Indy or invested in Afkhan."
Looking at the two listeners who silently nodded, Tan Zhenhua continued: "So is the Soviet Union's world's largest nuclear weapons arsenal? I'm afraid not at all. We all know that once this thing is used, it will inevitably lead to World War III. Everyone knows that there will be no victor in this war-whether it is the United States or Soviet Russia, the number of nuclear weapons equipped with it is enough to blow this blue star back into the Stone Age many times, and humans will probably have to spend hundreds or even thousands more. It’s been a year to re-develop the technology tree that has been hard to accumulate-of course, there may no longer be human beings on this planet. So, this thing looks terrible, but in fact, the real terrible thing is that it was launched When it’s on the shelf, it’s really going to be a fight, and that’s how it is, everyone just finished playing together.
Mahmoud couldn't help asking: "Then Eric, what do you think is the support point for Soviet Russia's expansion?"
"Of course it's because of money. In those few years, Soviet Russians were rich!"
"Uh...huh?"
"Mr. Brigadier General, don't laugh, I'm serious." Tan Zhenhua glanced at Mahmoud with a twitching mouth in dissatisfaction and said: "If you put the pace of Soviet Russia's expansion and the rise and fall of international oil prices together. In time, you will find that these two curves are surprisingly consistent."
Mahmoud's face immediately stiffened, and his unexpanded smile instantly solidified.
Although he is not in charge of intelligence work, he still understands the most basic situation. After thinking about it a little bit, he found that Tan Zhenhua said it was probably true.
While he was trying to think back, Tan Zhenhua said, "Since Haosha led the "First Oil War" in 1973, the high international oil prices have hit the economy of Western societies severely. In the same period, Soviet Russia’s oil was actively exported, which brought huge profits and accumulated a large amount of foreign exchange. We can simply calculate an account. Take 1983 as an example. The size of Soviet Russia’s oil exports that year was 750 million tons is 5.5 billion barrels. The average oil price of the year was 30 US dollars per barrel. With this alone, Soviet Russia gained approximately 165 billion US dollars in sales revenue, and about half of this was profit. You can think I want to see, this oil dividend has been taken by the Russians for more than ten years. What a fortune is that? The Russians have used this money not only to build a huge military force, but also to take NATO on a global scale. The aggressive offensive posture is actually nothing more than one thing-if you have money, you can do whatever you want!"
Whether it’s Zia. Both Huck and Mahmoud have to admit that what Tan Zhenhua said is very reasonable, because they really feel deeply about it.
Mahmoud is the newly appointed Minister of Equipment. What he has been thinking all day is how to get a little more budget from the government, and how to break the little money in his hand into a few pieces to barely block the army, navy and air force. The mouths of senior generals who hit the door for money and equipment; Zia. Huck is even more bitter. He is pressed by the firewood, rice, oil, and salt of a country in the University of Nova Scotia. Every day he opens his eyes and sees a lot of numbers spinning around in front of him, making him sometimes feel that he is not president, but an accountant ...
In fact, he feels roughly right. The president is the country's top leader. If you compare the country to a large company, he is the CEO. When a CEO, doesn't he have to deal with numbers, profit and loss every day?
Pity him as the CEO, he has not had a rich day, let alone a good life of net profit of more than 200 million US dollars every day...
It is said that the GDP of the entire Pakistan Railway in 1986 was only 32 billion US dollars.
Thinking of this, Ziahak couldn't help but sighed secretly, but he heard Mahmoud ask: "Erik, since the Soviets made so much money in the past few years, why do you say that they are poor now? Logically speaking, they should have saved a lot of money in the past few years? And the drop in oil prices is only in the past two years."
Tan Zhenhua smiled and said: "No matter how rich a big family is, they can't withstand the toss of a bunch of prodigal things!"