Chapter 457: is it good or bad

Yang Zhenhua frowned and asked, "Mr. Tan, what do you mean?"
"The meaning is very simple. According to my personal opinion, the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar will fall all the way in the next few years. In my opinion, it may fall below the 1:8 mark all the way to gradually stabilize and rise, and it will be even worse on the black market. It is possible to reach a high point of 1:10, so from the perspective of financial assets, it is obviously uneconomical to hold RMB now. Based on this situation, the total amount of US dollar assets that I use to provide guarantees should obviously be gradually The decline, at least, should also match the exchange rate.
After Tan Zhenhua said this, the expression on Yang Zhenhua's face suddenly became extremely exciting. The wind and clouds all over his face were swept away in an instant, and even the questioning became rushed: "Mr. Tan, what you said. , Is there any basis?"
The basis? Of course there is, and it comes from my own painful history.
When thinking about Tan Zhenhua’s past life, the old man Tan Zhenguo took the TOEFL and GRE exams, and got a lot of doctoral offers from prestigious universities with inhuman high scores, and all of them provided full scholarships, but because of the amount of scholarships High and low, the family hesitated for a long time, and finally gave up the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and switched to the University of Washington.
Of course, this is not all, even if you have the full prize, you can't have your hands free, right? At least you have to buy a one-way ticket? Why should you bring some on your body? Therefore, the family was really worried about changing him some dollars.
The official price is available, but unfortunately, at that price, the bank has always only been able to enter and exit. When private people want to change, they basically don’t even have a door. Tan Ming has no other way. He had to go to the black market to change it. As a result, it was negotiated a few days ago The price, when he finally got all the renminbi to trade, he was told that it had risen again...
Looking back now, Tan Zhenhua felt like Mr. Lu Xun’s writing of "overcharged three or five fights".
However, this matter can't be used to talk to the President Yang Da in front of him, he has to find a tall reason.
Of course, this little thing is nothing to Tan Dahuyou.
He opened his mouth and came: "President Yang, do I still need to give you a reason? You don't know the current price of RMB against the US dollar on the black market?"
Xiang Zhenhua nodded slightly. As one of the heads of the State Foreign Exchange Administration Department, if you don't know, don't be laughed off.
Tan Zhenhua continued: "To borrow a sentence from President Yang, you said that for your bank, money is your commodity. I totally agree with what you said. Currency is actually a commodity. If it is a commodity, it must have its counterpart. The actual value, or rather, the market’s assessment of its true value, and this black market price, is obviously the China Free Market’s estimate of the true value of the US dollar and the RMB. As for the official exchange rate published by your bank now, it’s nothing. It is because the administrative order sets the official price of this special commodity, which has no reference significance at all."
What he said was so direct and merciless, that Yang Zhenhua wanted to refute but didn't know where to start.
Tan Zhenhua hasn't finished saying: "In my understanding, the exchange rate regulations in your banking system are the same as the pricing of various production materials by the Planning Commission, not the unplanned circulating prices managed by the Planning Commission. It is the real actual value of these commodities. When I want to come to President Yang, I also know the huge price difference between the production materials inside and outside our China Development Plan."
"So this is why Mr. Tan judges that the official exchange rate will gradually fall in the next few years?"
"This is just one aspect. From another aspect, with the further promotion of Huaxia's reforms in recent years, we need to introduce a large number of advanced production equipment, technology, and raw materials, and all of these will use foreign exchange. President Yang I shouldn’t need to remind governments at all levels of their thirst for foreign exchange?

Seeing Yang Zhenhua's face full of hesitation but nodding but nodding, Tan Zhenhua continued: "So, the currency exchange market in front of us is obviously a market where the U.S. dollar or almost all foreign currencies are extremely scarce, so according to the most basic According to the economics principle, the scarcer a thing is, the higher its valuation will be lifted, and this situation will obviously not be fundamentally alleviated in the short term, so ah, the exchange rate will definitely increase The lower."
"However, we can still maintain the current state, and the national license price remains unchanged. As for the black market, it can be managed by more severe cracking methods."
Hearing this, Tan Zhenhua couldn’t help but sneered,
Hehe
,
Of course, this method can be used from the perspective of government monitoring and management. The consequence of coming? The black market exists only because the demand cannot be satisfied by the normal channels. From the perspective of foreign exchange management, foreign currency prices continue to rise while the official exchange rate remains unchanged. The black hole will get bigger and bigger, and this black hole, I don’t know how many people will be involved, and how many people will be taken seriously!"
After he finished saying this, Yang Zhenhua suddenly broke out in a cold sweat. Tan Zhenhua unceremoniously opened a lid, a lid of financial arbitrage.
As one of the top executives of the Bank of China, he certainly knows what Tan Zhenhua's "financial black hole" is. In fact, although there is no official publicity, this issue has been repeatedly mentioned at certain high-level meetings. , Because someone has already paid a price for this!
It is important to know that the huge exchange rate difference between the official exchange rate and the black market has already made some people uncontrollable. There have been more than one such cases in the Bank of China system alone. The internal personnel of the bank colluded with external companies, and the external companies Falsely reporting the prices of imported goods or simply forging imported items to defraud the country’s foreign exchange indicators, while internal employees use their rights to directly release foreign exchange without review. These precious foreign exchanges flow out at a very low official exchange rate to make a move on the black market. Go away, you will immediately have more than 2 times the profit, and then be filled with these people...
Of course, the country is not merciful to these people and found that one is caught. However, even Yang Zhenhua himself has to admit that the root of these people’s crimes lies in their inability to withstand the huge arbitrage space between the official exchange rate and the black market exchange rate. The temptation to come!
And this method is similar to other systems that use the so-called "white bars" to resell the planned materials for profit!
Seeing that he was silent, Tan Zhenhua concluded: "In my opinion, this financial black hole will be filled sooner or later. Of course, it will take a long time. At the very least, the renminbi and the U.S. dollar must be returned. To its original value, this process is obviously a long one, and it may take twenty, thirty or even more years. When foreign exchange, especially the U.S. dollar, ceases to be the goal pursued by the Chinese society as a whole, this black hole will naturally Of course, before that, what the government should do is not only to severely crack down on black market transactions, but also to gradually narrow the spread between the two markets."
Yang Zhenhua sighed in a long breath: "Mr. Tan is really a genius in the financial industry. This analysis is well-founded, and it makes sense, but I have one more question. According to your logic, the RMB will undergo a long-term devaluation process. That way, for us Huaxia, is it happy or bad?"