Chapter 4060: Crisis analysis

The actuary Jiangan sighed, "The secret society organization is powerful. Fortunately, we succeeded in preventing their terrorist attacks. Otherwise, the two-pronged approach will inevitably cause the Moroccans to be overwhelmed and lose sight of the other."
"So the local armed forces in Western Sahara will have a certain advantage. And as the war progresses, this advantage will become bigger and bigger?" Sausage asked.
The actuary was silent for a while, "That won't be true. Even though the Moroccans lose a little bit of opportunity, they are numerous and powerful. Although they suffer a small loss at present, they have an advantage in military strength and equipment.
Don't forget that they also have a large number of mechanized troops and considerable air force. It is actually very simple to remedy this disadvantage.
But what I fear most now is that the local armed forces of Western Sahara will not fight the Moroccans seriously. These people were originally militiamen, irregular troops, and were familiar with how to survive in desert areas.
In addition, they have the support of secret agencies and a broader mass base in Western Sahara.
Once they want to fight guerrillas with the Moroccans, although they will not defeat the Moroccans, they can definitely stand a long-term stalemate with the Moroccans.
Even if it is unavoidable in the end, it will drag the Moroccans to death even if they drag. "
"Just some militiamen fighting guerrilla warfare, what can they do to Moroccans?" Sausage shook his head. "In modern warfare, guerrilla warfare has proven to be unsuitable for large-scale long-term continuation."
Jiang An shook his head, "Don't underestimate guerrilla warfare. Generally speaking, guerrilla warfare is only a tactical issue. However, under special circumstances, guerrilla warfare can also rise to a strategic height.
The US military's fight in the Vietnam War is the best proof. The Vietnam War was the war with the largest number of Americans participating in the war and the most significant impact after World War II. In the end, the United States lost in the Vietnam War.
The powerful United States directly fought 650,000 people in this war, and more than 100,000 people were killed, injured and missing. During the Vietnam War, the United States lost 8,612 aircraft.
The U.S. economy has experienced a major decline, the U.S. dollar's dominance has been hit hard, and a huge fiscal deficit has appeared.
This war even completely changed the situation of the two hegemony between the United States and the Soviet Union: throughout the 1970s, the United States turned to a strategic defensive position, while the Soviet Union was in a strategic offensive position.
At that time, many US military experts believed that the Vietnam War was lost to the enemy's guerrilla warfare. A large number of irregular troops, sneak attacks everywhere. The U.S. military that won the Second World War suffered heavy losses in Vietnam. "
"Do you think that the armed militias in Western Sahara can beat the Moroccans? Isn't that exaggeration?" Sausage asked.
"Impossible. History is difficult to repeat, and the situation and conditions of the two sides are completely different from those of the Vietnam War." Jiang Jian shook his head. "But what I want to say is that it is very likely that they will be in a deadlock for a while.
And this deadlock will eventually be broken by one party's compromise, and then both parties will return to the negotiating table. "
"You mean the Moroccans will compromise?" Scarface whispered.
The actuary Jiangan nodded, "It's very possible. Because the Western Saharans have nothing to lose. But the Moroccans are worried.
Because of the delay in solving the Parasa issue, it has not only severely hindered Morocco’s economic and social development, but has also adversely affected regional stability and development, regional integration, and the global anti-terrorism situation.
Due to the rift between Morocco and Algeria, the construction of the Arab Maghreb Union came to a halt; since 1984, Morocco has always been detached from the African Union due to the issue of paris.
In the war on terrorism, the bordering areas of Morocco, Algeria, Western Sahara, and Mauritania have become important bases for terrorist organizations to plan attacks due to ineffective management.
Recently, because of Iran’s support for the Popular Front for Western Sahara, Morocco announced that it would sever diplomatic relations with Iran.
The reason given by the Moroccan side for the severance of diplomatic relations is that Iran, through Hezbollah in Lebanon, provided funds to the People’s Liberation Front of Western Sahara, delivered weapons and assisted its personnel in training, seriously threatening Morocco’s national security and interests.
Over the past decade or so, Morocco has fallen out with many countries because of the Western Sahara problem, including his important neighbor and potential rival Algeria.
In fact, many of these are relatively influential countries in the Arab world.
But I don’t think Morocco will really make itself lonely. When the pressure reaches a certain level, the Moroccans have to compromise.
The reason is simple. The armed groups of Western Sahara are militias. Take up weapons, they are fighters. Put down their weapons, they can be anyone.
Maybe it's a hawker selling date palms on the street, maybe an ordinary office worker, or even an old man sitting on the street basking in the sun. Wrapped in a black headscarf, the old woman hobbled.
In the confrontation between the Moroccans and them, armed suppression was inevitable. This will bring a lot of negative news, the army slaughters civilians, soldiers shoot women and children.
Those international humanitarian organizations will stand up and condemn them immediately, as well as various charitable organizations and the UN Security Council.
Although Morocco's total economy ranks sixth in Africa, North Africa ranks third. But phosphate exports, tourism and remittances are the main pillars of the Moroccan economy.
Their agriculture has a certain foundation, but they cannot support themselves in food, which requires imports. Once the international image is too bad, relevant countries will impose trade embargoes on phosphates and prohibit food exports.
Coupled with the effects of war, the tourism industry is dying. Morocco's economic strength will plummet. These things must be considered as Morocco.
But as people of Western Sahara, they don't have to worry at all. Because they didn't have anything. Even if the international community cuts off aid to them, it will be aimed at the Popular Front of Western Sahara.
Rather than targeting those local armed forces, for those local armed forces, as long as the funders provide them with money and weapons, they can fight. "
Lin Rui couldn't help but smiled bitterly, "That's why you are barefoot and you are not afraid to wear shoes. Moroccans have a family, a house and a business, so they are naturally worried.
Those Western Sahara militiamen have nothing, they have only a bad life. Either fight for food and clothing, or hand over this bad life and bring it down. Anyway, they don't want to be in the desert anymore. "
"If you say that. Wouldn't things continue to develop as the secret society organization expected?" Sausage asked with a frown.
"I think it is too early to say, because there is a huge variable in this. That is the People's Front of Western Sahara, they are currently recognized as a legitimate government in Western Sahara. And they still have us." Actuary Jiangan Replied.