Chapter 1054: True probability and false probability

　　 After this idea came up, Qiao Liang was startled by himself, thinking that he might be thinking too much, but the more he turned his head and analyzed it, he felt that this possibility did exist.
Whatever President Pei does, there must be deep meaning!
For the game "Fitness Fight", how to do the lottery system, in fact, does not necessarily have much impact on the profitability of the game itself.
Even if it is replaced by a regular lottery, the players who should be drawn will still draw.
And since President Pei has made the lottery system into its current state so aggressively, he must have a certain intention in it.
This intention is still invisible, but it is likely that President Pei predicted the players' possible reactions.
Therefore, if you want to truly analyze Mr. Pei's intentions, you still have to start from the players' reactions.
Qiao Liang immediately looked for posts on the "Fitness Battle" lottery on the Internet, and analyzed portraits of different user groups.
He quickly found many cases.
Because the players of "Fitness Fight" seem to have a much higher desire to post orders than other games.
Whether it is particularly lucky or particularly bad, they are very keen to publish the results of the lottery on the Internet.
If analyzed according to the traditional krypton gold game, the group of players who can recharge is generally divided into micro krypton, medium krypton and heavy krypton. The boundaries among them are relatively fuzzy and can be transformed into each other, but the overall division is based on the amount of money. .
But in "Fitness Fight", this distinction does not seem to work.
For example, someone charged up to 100,000, and then left a few of his favorite orders and refunded all the others. The last one cost only more than one thousand yuan, then this is regarded as medium krypton in the end. Or is it heavy?
Although this situation is relatively rare, it certainly exists.
Qiao Liang read a lot of cases on the Internet, and found that they are really varied and uncommon.
For example, someone draws five ten consecutive draws, and the result is all blue sky and white clouds, and a purple item is produced. The result is not what he wants.
So this buddy dumbfounded all the refunds.
If it is in other games, he may have to ask the customer service to ask for an explanation, but since the "Fitness Fight" will give a refund at will, then come back in three days.
Someone also drew three consecutive ten consecutive draws, all bursting orange. Originally, he planned to pick one of the best ten consecutive draws and keep it. The other two ten consecutive draws were all refunded. There is no refund now. Show off excitedly online.
There is also the most weird one. I really drew more than 50 ten consecutive draws, and kept one ten consecutive draws that burst two oranges in a row. All the rest were refunded, and I was very proud to post that I was "The Wool Wang", I suggest that everyone learn from themselves to make Tenda bald.
Some people even use this lottery system as a testing ground. Anyway, all refunds can be made. If you draw a refund, it is equivalent to not spending any money, and you can enjoy the lottery addiction.
These weird situations are never seen in the lottery system of other games.
Even if the players of other games are exposed, there are probably only two results: "Ou" and "Fei". Of course, the European may be very European, but the non-compliant may not necessarily be too nonsense.
"This lottery mechanism of Tenda... seems like a true probability?"
Qiao Liang suddenly had an idea and listed the difference between the traditional lottery model and the "Fitness Fight" lottery model on the document.
"True probability" is relative to "false probability".
If you think that the traditional lottery model is purely probabilistic, you would be wrong.
Qiao Liang also consciously added a lot of knowledge about game design, and he knew that the lottery in the game was never a true probability, but a false probability.
Of course, the false probabilities are not all for the merchant to make money, and sometimes to ensure the player's feelings.
To understand this, one must have a relatively basic knowledge of probability.
For example, a merchant sets a product explosion rate of 20%, which is already very high.
So, when the number of players is large enough and the sample is large enough, the number of players who draw this product for the first time is about 20%, which is easy to understand.
However, the probability of failing to draw five times is five times 80%, which is 0.32768, which means that about 30% of players will not draw five times.
The probability that you won’t even draw ten times is ten times 80% multiplied, which is about 0.1, which is 10%.
A 20% explosion rate item, if calculated according to the probability, 10% of the players will not even draw ten times.
And if you add it again, the probability that you won’t be able to draw 20 times is 1%.
Assuming that 100,000 people participated in this lottery, 1% is 1,000 people.
There are 1,000 people who can't draw a 20% burst rate even 20 times. Can they accept it?
This is obviously inconsistent with their intuition: Isn't something with a 20% burst rate sure to come out five times?
But the probability of this thing is different from person to person, 20% burst rate does not mean that it will be released five times, and there is even no guarantee that it will be released ten times.
Probability cannot be accurate to a certain individual. Only when the data sample is large enough, the true probability will infinitely approach the theoretical data.
In other words, if you draw once, everything can happen; but if you draw 100 million times, the probability of the draw will infinitely approach 20 million times.
But people who don't understand the basics of probability don't know this.
It is conceivable that if these thousand people have not drawn a 20% explosion rate even 20 times, they will definitely go to the forum to make trouble. How much pressure will be generated by then?
And most of them are middle or heavy krypton players, who have received such a lottery experience, will they participate in activities in the future? It's a good temper not to uninstall the game directly.
Therefore, in order to avoid this situation, many game manufacturers will set false probability in the game.
In other words, a 20% explosion rate, if the player does not draw it the first time, the second explosion rate will increase a bit, and it will be 100% if it has not been released until the fifth time.
This will ensure that no matter how bad the player's luck is, there will always be a guarantee.
From this point of view, the false probability does have a certain effect on protecting the player.
But the problem is that since the game business has made false probabilities, it is certainly impossible to only protect the interests of the players, and they naturally have to protect their own interests.
For example, for a very precious item worth tens of thousands of dollars, even if the explosion rate is 0.1%, if there are 100,000 players participating in the lottery, there will be 100 lucky winners and more than 90 lucky ones. The child is out twice...
If it is an unlimited number of precious items, it doesn't matter.
But what if the official wants to limit 500 or 1,000 copies in order to preserve the value of this item?
According to this drawing method, the ones who actually get the props are not necessarily the people who have the most money, but most of them are the real European emperors.
Maybe the local tyrants charged a few thousand dollars and didn't make it, but someone made it out as soon as they made it.
If they were drawn away by these European emperors, the local tyrants would be psychologically unbalanced, whether they were drawn or not, because even if the local tyrants were drawn, they would definitely spend far more money than the European emperors.
Luck and money ability are out of balance.
Therefore, game companies often set a prerequisite at this time, that is, after accumulating the amount of money spent on XX, it is possible to draw this thing, and the more money is charged, the greater the chance of drawing.
And doing so is in line with the psychological expectations of most players: I only smoked once, and it is normal for me not to; the local tyrant smoked dozens of times and it was reasonable.
But in fact, this has long been arranged by game manufacturers through false probabilities.
In this way, game companies ensure the consumption experience of the local tyrants, thereby keeping their consumption desires, and naturally keeping their own profits and reputation.
The sacrifice is the benefit of the small group of pure European emperors, but it doesn’t matter, because they don’t know that they are in fact pure European emperors, and they don’t know that they can actually withdraw this precious item as soon as they fired. of.
And players have no way to verify the authenticity of the data, because both the detailed rules of the lottery and the data after the lottery are in the hands of the game company, and the players have no channels to contact.
And President Pei’s lottery model is obviously a true probability, which means that 20% is 20%. It doesn’t matter if there are a thousand people who can’t even draw 20 times. I will give you a full refund and it will be over.
After in-depth comparison of the two different lottery modes, Qiao Liang suddenly had an idea.
"Could it be that Pei always wanted to use this new type of lottery model to deconstruct the traditional lottery model? Make some players realize that what they think of the lottery is only conducted within the framework drawn by the game company?"
"And Tenda's lottery, in fact, actively broke this framework, giving the players an absolutely fair but uncomfortable true probability?"
"Then... this is an almost impossible task!"
Qiao Liang couldn't help but respect President Pei.
False probability has long been accompanied by the lottery system, and even before the lottery function is available in many games, some websites and apps have already done it.
But after so many years, few people have questioned this kind of thing.
On the contrary, more and more players have become accustomed to and keen on lottery draws. More and more businesses have developed various lottery draws that take care of players' feelings on the surface and are actually more convenient for making money.
For game companies, the lottery system is equivalent to a stable cash cow, so that no matter if it is a mobile game, a mobile game, or even a random event organized by a lot of merchants, the lottery draws frequently.
Someone earns, then naturally others lose.
Game companies like to do lottery activities so much, they certainly do not lose money.
Isn't it obvious that who has lost?
And this lottery system of President Pei is obviously to pierce this veil, tell the players the cruel truth, and change this status quo!
Of course, the current situation is not optimistic.
Because most players do not have the relevant knowledge of game design, and human nature likes to try luck and take advantage.
Many people like lottery draws. If you tell him that it is a bad idea to talk about probability, expectation, and lottery, he can't listen to it. He must think that he is lucky, even he was cheated and spent a lot of money. After pulling out a pile of rubbish, he insisted that it was just that I was out of luck this time, and I would definitely be able to pull out what I wanted next time.
Obviously, ordinary merchants will do everything they can to tell consumers that lottery is a kind of preferential activity. Players and merchants are mutually beneficial. UU Read www.uukanshu. com draws a lottery is very cost-effective.
At most, a very small line of words is used in the lottery to remind you: the lottery is risky, and you need to be cautious when recharging.
But this kind of prompt will definitely be small and small, and most people don't care about it at all.
After this analysis, Qiao Liang came to a rather surprising conclusion.
"Does Mr. Pei's behavior cut off all the money for the lottery?"
"Although it may not be successful, Mr. Pei is really trying hard to pass the "Fitness Fight" lottery system to contrast other lotteries, so that everyone can see the facts of the so-called lottery."
"Even if there won't be many people in the end, even if it will attract crazy attacks from other companies looking to make money from the lottery, they don't care."
"It's really well-intentioned!"
Qiao Liang couldn't help but sigh, this kind of thing is only Pei always can do, is willing to do, dare to do!
It's just that most people are too slow to react and don't feel President Pei's good intentions at all.
You must come up with a video and talk about the key to it, and you can't let President Pei's efforts in vain!
The lottery activities of Finger Company and Longyu Group seem to be conscientious, but they are only conscientious when compared with other lucky draws that are too dark.
In fact, I still change the soup instead of the medicine, even if I get a 30% discount, I am still trying to make money from the players!
Compared with Tenda's approach, what conscience is there to speak of?