Vol 3 Chapter 87: Opportunity (2 in 1)

Snapped!
Shen Jiannan snapped his fingers, making the audience notice him.
"Mary. Tell me about the recent capital liquidity in the UK market."
"Yes, boss."
"..."
"..."
From 1982 to 1989, the British market was in a typical state of excess capital, showing liquidity represented by m3 and the price of real estate and stock prices as assets. The rate of increase was much higher than that of gDP and cPI. Real estate prices were in ten years. Within a row, it has risen by 16%, and the stock market has risen by 320%.
Among them, the excess currency indicator em was as high as 16% in 1986, which was abnormally higher than 1.6% in 1985. In 1987, the em indicator reached a historic high of 80%.
In terms of interest rates, in 1985, the privatization reform process led to the short-term growth of the British economy. The cPI index also reached 6.1%. The Bank of England increased the overnight lending rate to 12.5%, but the inflation After falling to 5%, the short-term lending rate dropped from 10% to 9.5%.
In 1988, perhaps because of the crisis caused by the excessive speculation in the market and the overwhelming currency, the Bank of England raised interest rates again. In 1989, the overnight lending rate was raised to 13.5%, and in 1990, the interest rate was even higher. 14.7%.
There are all experienced elites in the market. Even William has made up relevant knowledge. How can he not understand the meaning of Shen Jiannan and Mary's question and answer.
The pound is seriously over-issued, and it is precisely because of the large amount of over-issued currency that the stock market and real estate market continue to rise.
The relationship between supply and demand determines the price factor. The excess circulation of the pound sterling is huge, which corresponds to devaluation pressure. If you want to maintain the price of the pound, you need to raise interest rates to shrink the pound's market circulation.
However, after the privatization reform, the British economy was mostly affected by the European Community and the North American market. As Finland, Iceland and other Nordic countries fell into economic crisis, the British export industry was greatly affected, and the unemployment rate remained high. It is very necessary to cut interest rates to stimulate inflation. .
Soon, Mary's narration came to an end, and the huge conference room became silent.
Obviously, the purpose of my boss is to short the pound.
This idea is horrible.
The empire that never sets in the sun is so powerful that it once ruled almost half of the earth. Although Britain is no longer in its glory, the slender camel is bigger than the horse, and the broken ship is still a few kilograms of nails.
If you want to short the British pound with the strength of Capital One, it is not an egg hitting a rock, but a mouse trying to kill an elephant. It is simply seeking death.
Guru!
Andy Smith swallowed, but didn't say anything very well.
Short selling a country’s currency is tantamount to challenging the authority of a country. The United Kingdom is also a member of the European Community. If you want to short the pound sterling, you are challenging the behemoth of the European Community.
MI5 and MI6 are not people who eat rice. God knows what kind of trouble it will cause.
Success, there is no good fruit, failure, the loss is your own money.
"Smith. Don't be restrained if you have any ideas."
Andy Smith couldn't help but straighten his back and spoke very seriously.
"Boss. With all due respect, it is a very stupid idea to short the British pound. Although there is a loophole in the exchange rate mechanism of the European Community, and the UK is no longer glorious now, the Bank of England's foreign exchange reserves are as high as 24 billion. The dollar, no one can shake this kind of Britain.
Even if we find the weakness of Britain, there is nothing we can do.
A lean camel is bigger than a horse. Whether it succeeds or fails, this is a country with complete sovereignty. If we provoke it, we simply cannot bear the consequences. "
as a result of?
Shen Jiannan raised his eyebrows, stood up, walked behind Andy Smith, and patted his shoulder heavily.
"Andy. The consequences, don’t worry. You’re right, the skinny camel is bigger than a horse, so don’t worry at all. Now, we are talking about the market. Capital determines the price. Do you think how much capital we need to prepare? earned money."
Andy Smith frowned, but soon he let go of unnecessary thoughts. He was just an investment manager and didn't have to think about anything outside the market.
"Boss. According to the EC exchange rate mechanism, when the exchange rate reaches the lower limit of floating, central banks are responsible for market intervention."
"Yes. They do not manipulate foreign exchange prices, but only intervene in the market."
Andy Smith was taken aback, wondering why Shen Jiannan's tone was suddenly ironic.
Shen Jiannan didn't explain, patted him on the shoulder, suitable for him to continue.
"If the exchange rate reaches the lower limit of volatility, the central banks of the member states must intervene in the market. This will be the main logic for us to make money. Otherwise, no matter how much money we invest, we will lose nothing like those fools who short the ruble.
But this is also our limitation.
As a member of the European Community, if the British pound is hit hard, Deutsche Bank will certainly not stand by. The UK itself has more than 20 billion US dollars in foreign exchange reserves. Moreover, the UK is also a member of ImF and can borrow from ImF if necessary. A lot of money.
We have no chance of winning at all.
Secondly, not only the United Kingdom needs to cut interest rates to stimulate inflation. Countries such as Italy and Luxembourg also need to stimulate inflation. All member states, except Germany, need to implement lower interest rates or even cut interest rates. I think Deutsche Bank must also do so. In spite of the pressure from the major member states, if Deutsche Bank lowers the benchmark interest rate, then all the consortiums on Wall Street can only lose. "
Shen Jiannan nodded, patted Andy Smith on the shoulder without hesitation, and applauded.
"You are right. If Deutsche Bank lowers its benchmark interest rate to truly share the same prosperity with the European Community, then no one can do anything about it even if the loopholes are in front of them."
Andy Smith did not answer, he knew that Shen Jiannan must have something to say.
As a real financial elite, he can feel the arrogance and domineering, arrogant and neurotic in Shen Jiannan's bones.
It's not crazy, who dares to challenge a country's central bank.
Today's Capital One has only 300 million U.S. dollars in circulating funds. If you want to short the British pound, it is no different from touching your neck.
But how can one person be able to control an investment company with assets of up to 2 billion U.S. dollars?
Andy Smith listened quietly, hoping that Shen Jiannan could persuade him, and he also hoped that Shen Jiannan could find out the flaws in his analysis. He is a guy who is really obsessed with currency research.
Shen Jiannan will naturally not let him down.
He let go of the hand patted on Andy Smith's shoulder, walked to the window, and looked at the starry night outside through the glass.
At night, Canary Wharf is beautiful. As a financial district, there is no shortage of feasting, fluorescent lights, and colorful colors like brilliant gems. It embellishes the city that can be seen is extremely beautiful.
All present quietly looked at Shen Jiannan's back, waiting for him to explain, expect, and a kind of excitement.
Everyone knows that once someone like Shen Jiannan speaks, the reason will definitely be shocking. This top foraging has mastered the rules of the world.
"After World War II, Deutsche Bank has a traditional duty to fight inflation. To prevent the revival of populism, I think you all know this?"
What is populism?
World War II was not only a risk transfer caused by the economic downturn, but also a collective outbreak of populism.
The squandering is gradually becoming charming.
Wealth, strength, desire, self-confidence.
When any kind of thing reaches the point of swelling, that kind of psychological arrogance and arrogance, arrogance, is an extremely dangerous thing.
Money is a person's blood.
When the qi and blood are sufficient, people will become extraordinarily strong, and their hearts will become crazy and arrogant like a wild horse.
Just like Japan, being a defeated country is itself a shame and a lesson, but since the economy has developed, people have money in their pockets, and they have forgotten the price paid in the past.
Even the Prime Minister spoke wildly and satirized that the United States is an inferior country, and the Americans are nothing but that.
The prime minister is like this, not to mention the people. Under the guidance of the media, Japan has forgotten how he was defeated. Since the Plaza Accord, he has spent a lot of money all over the world in an attempt to buy the whole Earth.
Anyone who dares to say that Japan is not good at all will be insulted and threatened, or even labeled as a Japanese traitor. Once, Li laughed, it was precisely because he dared to say that Japan’s economy was about to end, and was therefore The curse is well known throughout Japan.
But Germany is different. As a defeated country, it has deeply absorbed the lessons and has always been very resistant and fearful of the kind of heart expansion brought about by wealth.
Therefore, the president of Deutsche Bank has an unwritten duty, no matter what the situation is, fighting inflation is the first duty.
Bang bang bang!
Several people present can hear their own heartbeat.
The responsibilities of Deutsche Bank have only been heard in legends, but Shen Jiannan said so, that is, for sure.
That..... With Germany’s current inflation rate, Deutsche Bank may really not lower interest rates.
It’s not long since July. At the next meeting on interest rates in Germany, if Germany does not lower interest rates...
"If Germany doesn't cut interest rates or even raise interest rates, you said, will it be fun."
"Haha!"
Shen Jiannan laughed wildly, full of madness.
But no one is dissatisfied with this. If Germany does not cut interest rates but raises interest rates, the exchange rate mechanism of the European Community will be directly shattered by Germany.
Everyone present could not help but get excited. If the situation develops as the boss thinks, it is a great opportunity waiting for them.
No one is a fool. If capital all over the world moves, let alone Britain, the United States will not be able to handle it either.
but......
Obscenity cannot become a reality~EbookFREE.me~ For speculation, we must always control the blood on the waistband.
Excitement makes everyone's blood flow faster, but reason keeps everyone awake.
"Boss. But what if Germany can't bear the pressure of major member states to cut interest rates?"
"Carrot head. Now, you can't really bury yourself where there is a hole like a carrot. Ok?"
Damn, what kind of metaphor is this.
Robert John secretly slandered, very dissatisfied with Shen Jiannan's name and evaluation of him, but his awe could not help spreading in his bones.
"Omika. Praise God. Boss, your wisdom is like the brilliance of the gods. I finally know why you let me build a financial company."