Vol 4 Chapter 81: European excrement stick (2 in 1 large

　　 If the husband has not fought and the temple is considered the winner, there is more;
　　 If the temple is invincible without a fight, it must be few.
　　 From Sun Tzu Art of War
　　 America, Wall Street.
　　 Quantum Fund Headquarters.
　　 Stanley Druckenmiller took the intelligence sent back from Europe, turned the pen in his hand, and dealt with the influence and changes that the intelligence might bring line by line.
　　George Soros is not there. In the early years, the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe were undergoing rapid social changes. Soros saw the opportunity of historical changes and decided to withdraw from the investment business and devote all his energy and time to charity. On the one hand, they donated to social organizations, and on the other hand, they met with dignitaries of Western powers to promote their aid plans and support the reforms in the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe.
　　 In the summer of 1989, Soros had moved his family to London. He used London as a bridgehead to travel between the Soviet Union and Eastern Europe. The main investment task of the Quantum Fund has been handed over to Druckenmiller, and he has only left a little fund to survive the addiction.
　　 Now, Druckenmiller is the top decision maker and manager of this fund.
　　 After reading the content of the information line by line, Druckenmiller forgot the pen in his hand and fell into contemplation.
　　Politics and economics are like twin brothers, inseparable from each other. When economic problems become acute, problems will become political problems, and the solutions to political problems are generally economic means. The love between politics and economics was vividly manifested in World War I and World War II.
　　 After World War II, due to the empiricism left in history, European countries hope to bind their economies tightly. In this way, close economic relations will avoid wars that erupt every few decades, and create a "pan-European economy" to counteract the flood of dollars.
　　This idea finally formed the birth of the European Union, the predecessor of the European Union, and the emergence of the predecessor of the euro, erm.
　　 The so-called theeuropeanexchangeratemechanism is actually the European exchange rate mechanism, which is equivalent to a product of mutual compromise among the participating countries of the European Community.
Because currency represents a country’s sovereign reputation, a concrete manifestation of a country’s strength, and a way for a country to exist. Under normal circumstances, no country will voluntarily give up its own currency and leave the independence and issuance of currency to others. In human hands.
But with the prosperous Warsaw Pact alliance, the raging of the U.S. dollar in various countries, and the strong impact of the yen economy on Europe, under the leadership of Germany, the members of the European Community agreed to link the exchange rates of various currencies and have the central bank to intervene in the market Prices, not the exchange rate fluctuations determined by the market.
　　Economic strength determines the right to speak in politics. The German economy is the strongest in Europe. The German mark has become the anchor of European currencies. The currencies of various countries bit the German mark and allow fluctuations in the range of 6. If the floating flexibility is not enough, one country can negotiate with other countries to make adjustments. This
　　This system has achieved the goal of balancing exchange rate stability and interest rate flexibility.
In the more than ten years of erm's operation, the mechanism has worked well and has the following advantages: it reduces European currency fluctuations, so that companies do not have to worry about severe exchange rate fluctuations affecting business models and profits when investing and trading; it strengthens the links between member states , Interdependence can avoid many unnecessary disputes, such as war.
　　 In the mid to late 1980s, after the privatization policy of the Iron Lady Thatcher, the British economy was strong. Margaret Thatcher believed that the economy was healthy and curbing inflation became the primary responsibility of the British government.
　　The then chancellor of finance, she insisted that the exchange rate of the pound sterling should be determined by the market. But by 1990, Margaret Thatcher’s political influence was declining, and the influence of other members of the party rose. These people wanted to link the exchange rate of the pound sterling with other European countries, including.
　　In the month, the Chancellor of the Exchequer Major persuaded other officials of the Ministry of Finance to join the erm. This action was also supported by other political parties. At that time, one pound can be exchanged for 2.95 German marks, and the British government is obliged to maintain the exchange rate within the range. Starting
　　 Soon after, johnmajor replaced Margaret Thatcher as the prime minister of the United Kingdom. Britain's joining erm is one of the important achievements he is proud of. , It is simply the "auto-cruise" mode. In the future, the British monetary policy will operate on its own, without the need to bother. The full text of 噺⒏⑴The fastest んττρs:/м.χ八㈠zщ.còм/
　　 Thinking of this, Druckenmiller couldn't help but smile.
　　 From the perspective of quantum mechanics, the automatic cruise monetary policy of the United Kingdom is simply whimsical. It seems that it no longer needs to worry about it, but in fact there are many shortcomings.
Joining erm means: Britain’s monetary policy is no longer independent, but a passive follower of Germany’s monetary policy; the Bundesbank adopts tightening or loose monetary policies to combat inflation or release monetary liquidity. According to the erm agreement, the United Kingdom The central bank needs to adjust monetary policy simultaneously.
　　 However, the economic levels of various countries are not consistent within a certain period. With the fall of the Berlin Wall, the merger of East and West Germany has greatly increased Germany's strength, and inflation has remained high. Germany needs higher interest rates to curb inflation.
But not in the UK. Although privatization has stimulated the UK’s economy, it has also exposed various problems. The continuous increase in interest rates has also plunged the UK into an economic dilemma. Now, the UK needs to lower interest rates too much to stimulate the economy. Only restricted by the exchange rate mechanism, the British government simply cannot print money as it wishes to stimulate the economy.
　　 After a moment of contemplation, Druckenmiller got up from his office chair and walked to the world map not far away.
　　 Judging from the current situation in Europe, among the erm, the United Kingdom will be the biggest weakness in this exchange rate mechanism, and it will never change.
As an island country, isolated from the European continent, its railway and road transportation cannot be integrated into the European continental system. Naturally, it is impossible to integrate the entire European political situation. If Europe is unified, its political and cultural center may be Paris, Berlin or even Rome, but absolutely It won't be London.
　　 And a European Union with a population of more than 200 million people has a unified foreign and economic policy, and the United Kingdom can only be reduced to a small follower, overwhelmed by its brilliance.
　　 Judging from the decisions made by the British in history, they are like European dung sticks. Whichever European continent becomes bigger, it will unite with other countries to beat it. In history, Spain, France, and Germany have all suffered.
　　 Now, the strength of Germany must make Britain and France deeply disturbed.
　　 Scott Besser has studied the UK real estate industry and shorted several real estate stocks. He told Druckenmiller: Germany maintains high interest rates, the pound is already at the lower limit of the erm mechanism, and the Bank of England can maintain the pound by raising interest rates.
　　 However, mortgage interest rates in the UK usually fluctuate. If the central bank raises interest rates, the people will immediately be under pressure to repay. The decline in consumption will make the UK into recession even worse.
　　 Therefore, the Bank of England will never raise interest rates.
　　 Now, the biggest question is whether the Bundesbank can withstand the pressure from the other twelve countries to cut interest rates. If Schlesinger can withstand the pressure from the other twelve countries, erm's biggest shortcomings will be completely exposed.
　　 "Schlesinger, I think you definitely don't want to sacrifice the interests of Germany and bring so many pig teammates. They have cheated you again and again."
　　 Withdrawing his gaze from the map, Druckenmiller muttered to himself softly.
　　 Misfortunes lie on the blessings, the blessings lie in the misfortunes!
　　 The operation of the economy is like the Yin-Yang theory, which is both contradictory and interdependent.
　　 Later, when inflation in various countries around the world was sluggish, central banks rushed to cut interest rates to stimulate inflation, and many countries even emptied all their bargaining chips. Interest rates were lowered to the sea level and their fate was completely handed over to God.
　　 In the era of zero interest rate, an interest rate of a few per cent is enough to attract countless capitals. A certain amount of treasure is only 0.2% higher than the bank's benchmark interest rate and can deposit trillions of funds.
　　Risk is always the opposite of return.
　　 When the risk is higher than the bank's benchmark interest rate, you have to consider the possibility of principal loss.
　　 But unfortunately, many people always feel that he is definitely not among the unlucky ones.
　　 A certain Dong’s financial management reached 6.5 percent, and he easily attracted countless criminals who took risks. At the risk of the principal being wiped out, he resolutely joined the army.
　　 As a result, there was a settlement problem immediately after maturity, and the fund lost as much as 70%.
　　 p2p, financial management, financial management, the explosion of landmines one by one, can not prevent the capital from being left behind, because it is the nature of capital to chase profits.
　　Boston, Charles River.
　　 Shen Jiannan was holding a fishing rod in his hand, absently accompanied E Song Xiaodan to fish in the river.
　　 With the subsequent low inflation in various countries competing to raise interest rates, the situation in various countries is just the opposite.
　　 In March 1980, U.S. inflation reached 14.8. The then Fed Chairman Volcker raised interest rates continuously. In June 1981, the federal benchmark interest rate reached 20.
　　 Yes, the benchmark interest rate is 20%, a terrifying figure that no one would even dare to think about.
　　 What followed was a recession in the United States, and the inflation rate fell to 3 in 1983. The extremely tight monetary policy made room for Reagan, relying on the government to borrow heavily, and drawing blood from the Japanese market, using the Plaza Accord to force Japan to buy US dollars. The US economy took off and Reagan laughed.
　　 The Fed's Volcker and Reagan pair of "extreme twin arrogances" have become role models for central banks and governments around the world: the "Volcker Sword" of tightening monetary policy to combat inflation and the "Reagan Economics" of stimulating the economy through fiscal deficits.
　　 Since then, many central banks have followed Volcker's example, tightening monetary policies, and the people of the world have joined forces to resist inflation; at the same time, these austerity policies are paving the way for the global economic recession in the early 1990s.
　　 Now the general trend has tilted. When the Plaza Agreement was signed, the Soviet Union was disintegrated, and Yichong Yasuno chose to make concessions for the dollar, everything was already doomed.
　　 is like a wheel of inertia, with various layouts and pushers, whether it is an off-board player or European countries, there are not many choices in itself to choose or not.
　　The question is, how can we cut off the greatest benefit in this torrent.
　　 There is an upper limit for the pond.
　　 is like the seven-color ball's prize pool, the largest total amount of Lieutenant General is nothing more than emptying the prize pool.
　　 To be empty, a condition must first be met.
　　 has opponents.
　　 Because the three basic logics of shorting are borrowing, selling, and then buying in exchange.
　　The middle selling link requires a buyer to buy it.
　　What will happen if there is no buyer?
　　 The borrowed money may be rotten in his own hands like waste paper, watching the depreciation of the short-selling target, but losing it like a red head.
　　 The Bank of England is the biggest fat sheep in this game, but it only has 22 billion pounds in foreign exchange reserves, which is equal to 44 billion U.S. dollars.
　　 means that in this lottery pool, the total prize money that can be withdrawn is US$44 billion.
　　 But the general situation is created and more people are needed to participate. Everyone will share the money in the bonus pool together, and the bets placed must be controlled within the highest reward amount.
　　 Otherwise, it will become a busy day.
　　 Shen Jiannan couldn't help but raised his eyebrows. There was so much meat in the plate. It would only be better to start first. As for those who start later, the suffering cannot rest on him.
　　 The breeze on the river was rippling, and the fish floated gently in the river. Suddenly, Shen Jiannan's fish floated.
　　 Song Xiaodan, who was paying attention to the fishing, hurriedly yelled.
　　 "Jiannan, a fish has taken the bait."
　　 fish?
　　 Then this time ~EbookFREE.me~ just treat those guys as fish.
　　 grinned, Shen Jiannan let the fish float slowly up and down on the river, shaking constantly as the fish tried.
　　 The fish floated.
　　 The fish float moved again.
　　 Suddenly, the fishing float sank and disappeared from the river.
　　咻
　　 Shen Jiannan withdrew his thoughts, Mo Liu lifted the fishing rod, and a fish weighing more than three catties threw its tail, unwilling to be taken out of the river.
　　 "Wow, this fish is fat."
　　 "Yeah. It's really plump."
　　 "What is your metaphor? It implies that I am fat?"
"My Miss Song, I think this is a good thing. Look at this fish, the big place is big, the small place is small, not fat or greasy, and the body is round and smooth. Especially the mouth of this fish, one piece and one piece, Hey..."
　　 Shen Jiannan held the fish and said, his eyes were full of smirk.
　　 just didn't say directly: like you.
　　 How could Song Xiaodan agree, his eyes widened, and he grabbed the bastard's ears.
　　 "Hey, hey! It hurts. The gentleman talks but doesn't use his hands."
　　 "Smelly hooligan. Say it later."
　　 "I just told you not to do it."
　　 "Bah! Don't assume I don't understand what you are talking about."
　　 "Baby. Why are you so beautiful now, I just hurt, let you don't do it, what are you thinking about you."
　　 "......"