Chapter 254: Go short, start with the pound!

Just kidding, Young Master Tan Er doesn't have any bad habits of corruption, and these two unshaven masters are really unattractive to him.
Yu Pengxia smacked her lips and sighed: "Now I'm completely convinced. I thought that after a period of contact, I already knew Zhenhua you very well, but I just heard you just now, I know, I know you. , Is just the tip of the iceberg. It turns out that Zhenhua, you are not only an inventor, but also a unique perspective on economics and politics. The analysis of this passage just now is very good, but your age... really surprised me."
Guo Zhaode continued: "Tan Gongzi, listening to your words is better than reading ten years of books. Your world trend is simply the outline and barometer of economic operations in the next few years. Peng Xia is right. You do have great wisdom. People.
When you said just now, I carefully recalled the recent economic operation of Xiangjiang, and simply confirmed that, as you said, it is already in danger.
Since the beginning of 82 years, everyone is aware of the weakness of the Xiangjiang property market, and even government auctions of land have seen many unsold incidents. This is simply unimaginable in previous years!
From this point of view, the property market has indeed reached a high point. Above this high point, speculators who hold a large amount of real estate in their hands and are tight on funds must be cautious and cautious. Once there is any turmoil, there will be a crash like the kind of collapse you mentioned earlier The phenomenon of a plunge is extremely likely.
And as far as I know, many factories have closed their factories in Xiangjiang and disbanded their workers. Some of them invested money in the property market that was in full swing in the past few years, and some moved their factories to a special zone on the other side of the Shenchuan River. In this way, Zhenhua's prediction of the hollowing out of the Xiangjiang economy is very likely to become a reality!
Of course, most of the money for real estate speculation comes from banks. Let’s take HSBC as an example. The current mortgage interest rate is 21%. In order to control risks, the loanable ratio of house valuation has changed from The peak of 80% at the beginning of last year has dropped to less than 60% now. Moreover, there are internal rumors that it will further decrease and the qualification review of lenders is becoming more and more stringent.
Then I briefly recalled the changes in crude oil prices over the past few years.
Indeed, since the establishment of the petro-dollar system in 1974, after experiencing a wave of price increases caused by the oil crisis in the 1970s and reaching a peak of 35 dollars per barrel in mid-1981, it has entered a long bear market, over 10 months The decline has continued. The current oil price has fallen below US$25 a barrel and continues to fall. Even my colleague who is proficient in futures predicts that it may fall below the US$20 mark within the year!
My colleague once complained to me about why the Iran-Iraq War was in full swing, and the price of oil did not rise but fell. I just heard the words of Lord Tan, and I understood the whole story! "
This flattering Tan Zhenhua was refreshed, and he couldn't help but increase his evaluation of Guo Zhaode: Well, this manager Guo doesn't look at the current position, but he is very heartbroken, and he dared to think of killing himself when he first met. Little Sheep, and after knowing that the trick he played was seen through, he can immediately put down his body and kneel to admit his mistakes. It seems that he has a thick skin and he has a good understanding of the general economic situation. The statement just now revealed his various economic data of previous years. I also know quite well. Obviously, I haven't lived for nothing in the past few years at HSBC. It's not bad. It's a good seed for finance.
So he smiled and said: "Manager Guo, you keep calling me Young Master Tan. This is a joke between Lao Yu and me. What kind of child am I, and I shouted so many points. We talked for so long. We are acquainted, and we will still get along with each other as friends in the future. I am young, so you should call me Xiao Tan, or call my name Zhenhua."
Not long after Guo Zhaode offended Tan Zhenhua, how dare he call him Xiao Tan, and said with a smile: "Then I, like Peng Xia, call you Zhenhua. By the way, Zhenhua, I heard Peng Xia say that you want to speculate in foreign exchange?"
"Yes, I just told you about my forecast for the Xiangjiang economy in the future. The local currency will inevitably face a sharp decline, so I want to take this opportunity to vote."
Guo Zhaode lowered his head and thought for a while, and said: "Zhenhua, I don’t know the general trend of the world as well as you. However, I still have some experience in financial practice. I have a small suggestion. ?"
Tan Zhenhua replied: "I said just now, everyone will get along with friends in the future, and just say what you have. This is the way to get along with friends."
Guo Zhaode said: "Okay, let me just say a little bit of my opinion. Zhenhua, the general trend of the world you just mentioned, is indeed a high-rise building, which can be used as the general program for our operations in the future. However, in terms of specific practical operations, There are also many exquisites."
Tan Zhenhua asked with interest: "Oh? What do you say?"
Guo Zhaode explained: "Based on my experience in HSBC over the years, successful investors are often very particular about the efficiency of funds. In other words, they are pursuing the maximization of profits per unit of time and unit of funds."
Tan Zhenhua nodded in agreement.
I think he had done stocks in his previous life, but even though his results were not terrible, it could only be regarded as an awkward crowd. Therefore, in the end, he simply handed over all his spare money to his brother to take care of him, and he would get some dividends every year. Made a parasite.
After rebirth, with his grasp of the historical process, he has a forward-looking vision, and he can be regarded as the first person in the world to predict and understand the political and economic situation. Unfortunately, the rebirth did not give him any more knowledge, so, his reality The level of exercise can only be described in one word, that is
rotten.
Now there is an experienced practical master giving a lecture. Of course, he has to listen carefully. As the saying goes, it’s a good idea, isn’t it?
Just listen to Guo Zhaode continue to say: "According to my understanding, the so-called currency is nothing more than a bond issued by a country or region as a credit guarantor. Since it is a bond, its value is closely related to the issuer's actual solvency.
Therefore, speculation in foreign exchange is nothing more than speculation in an expectation.
And this expectation is actually a comprehensive evaluation of the entire financial market on the currency issuer's economy, politics, debt solvency, and so on.
In this evaluation system, war is the one that can affect the results most quickly. After all, the winner of any war will inevitably follow the upgrade of evaluation and the loser will inevitably face the downgrade of evaluation.
Coincidentally, at present, there is an ongoing war! "
If Zhenhua’s forecast for the development of the Falklands war is correct, combined with Zhenhua’s judgment on the future of the world that we all recognize, then I suggest that our first investment can start from shorting the pound! "