Chapter 253: National Games

Seeing that the two opposites were listening attentively, Tan Zhenhua nodded in satisfaction and continued: "According to my prediction, the current economic situation of Xiangjiang can be said to be at stake!"
He waved his hand to stop Yu Pengxia’s urge to interrupt, and continued:
Knowing that you have doubts, Xiangjiang is one of the four dragons in Asia after all, and in terms of per capita GDP, it can be regarded as the top of the four dragons. In danger?
I say this, of course, I have my reasons. Next, I will analyze the five aspects of the property market, banks, stock market, foreign exchange market, and futures.
Let me talk about the property market first.
When I first met with Lawyer Yu, I asserted that this year, the property market in Hong Kong will inevitably fall sharply, and it will be a cliff-like fall!
The reason is actually very simple. After a wave of property speculation in the past few years, the property market in Hong Kong has not only been at a historical high, but its own price has far exceeded the purchasing power of actual local demanders! Most of the current real estate is in the hands of speculators.
However, property speculation requires a huge amount of funds, and most of the funds used by speculators to speculate are borrowed from various channels. I heard from Lawyer Yu that the current interest rates on mortgage financing offered by banks in Hong Kong have exceeded 20% per annum, not to mention that many people borrow money from financial companies with higher interest rates.
In my opinion, such interest rates have reached an unimaginable level. Although rents have increased to a certain extent with the increase in housing prices in recent years, it is still completely impossible to cover the cost of capital, and may even be less than one-third.
What does this mean?
It means that as long as the real estate in the hands of speculators cannot be realized at a higher price, he is losing money every day! However, how many people are willing to buy a house at a higher price?
In this way, quite a few speculators actually lose money every day, and the more people in their hands, the more they lose. Then, unless he has sufficient funds, he will face the risk of breaking the capital chain at any time. Once this happens to two companies with considerable size and market influence, the situation will take a turn for the worse!
The current high housing prices have produced spillover effects. On the one hand, a large amount of social funds have been absorbed and locked in, which has severely reduced the flow and investment intention of these funds to the manufacturing and service industries that Xiangjiang has always been proud of; Greatly increase the cost of capital flowing to these areas, and the increase in land costs and capital costs will surely accelerate the outflow of these industries, especially the manufacturing industry, in Xiangjiang. In addition, the attractiveness of low-cost land and labor across the Shenchuan River is increasing day by day. In the foreseeable future, the hollowing out of the economy will be the general trend.
Moreover, this part of the capital that should have flowed to the real economy will also be the direct victim of this price collapse, and may even be the biggest victim, because they are not the opponents of the top players in finance and real estate, and will definitely become these. The prey of financial predators!
Let's talk about banks.
As you all know, most of the money for property speculation comes from banks. I heard that in the past few years, the leverage of the property market has also increased to nearly 10 times. In other words, once the property market drops by more than 10%, it will trigger a large number of bank stop-loss orders. That will not only aggravate the rate of decline in the property market, but also cause banks to Systematic risks, to put it bluntly, I expect that a large number of small and medium-sized banks will fail in this wave!
Banks have always been an important support point for the smooth operation of the economy, so their stocks have always been the sacred needles in the stock market. Although the stock positions and market profitability of Xiangjiang are not high now, once a large number of small and medium banks form a wave of failures, they will inevitably promote The chain reaction of the stock market!
Moreover, in the eyes of many people, the future of Xiangjiang is extremely uncertain. Then, emptying positions and cash will become the choice of most people, so the stock market will reach historical lows in the next one to two years!
However, cash is king, and that depends on what kind of cash it is.
As I just said, since everyone has doubts about the future of Xiangjiang, the local currency is definitely not a good choice for holding cash. Looking at Bluestar, at this stage there is only one currency that is recognized as a hard currency with good credit, and that is the US dollar!
Therefore, selling the local currency and buying the U.S. dollar will also become the best choice for most people. That is to say, the local currency will inevitably depreciate the U.S. dollar significantly in the next year or two. I heard that the recent exchange rate is about 1:5.5 for the U.S. dollar to the local currency, so a double depreciation can be expected.
As for futures, it depends on what futures it is.
As we all know, the United States is now strangling and blocking Soviet Russia in many ways, and one of the most important weapons is finance!
We all know that although Soviet Russia has developed heavy industry and strong military power, it is a lame bear. The domestic economic situation is in a mess. Light industrial products and even grain cannot be self-sufficient and can only rely on imports.
What can be imported?
What can you rely on? Of course, we can only rely on hard currency, and the dollar.
There is only one commodity that Soviet Russia can exchange for a large amount of dollars, and that is oil.
Unfortunately, oil is not a scarce material, and China can produce a little. Of course, there is another place that can produce a large amount and actually holds the oil pricing power, that is, the Middle East headed by Haosha! The reason why the royal family there can maintain a luxurious life is because it is obedient and listens to the words of the United States. Moreover, according to the agreement between the United States and Haosha, the oil on the international market can only be settled in US dollars!
In order to suppress Soviet Russia and keep him in a state of continuous blood loss, the United States will inevitably require countries such as Mosha and other countries to suppress oil prices. You must know that Soviet Russia’s oil is buried under the frozen ground, and its mining costs are more The Middle East, which can spray oil on shallow sand, is more than twice as high!
Therefore, the oil price in the next few years will remain at a low level, and this price is likely to be lower than the production cost of Soviet Russia. If it sells a barrel, it will lose a barrel, and it will continue to lose blood!
What's more, low oil prices will greatly benefit the United States, which has the world's largest economy and huge energy consumption, because it will greatly reduce its manufacturing and logistics costs!
Of course, the US bloodletting to Soviet Russia is not just a trick to suppress oil prices, there is also a more vicious trick, which is to desperately raise the price of basic food crops!
Because 70% of Soviet Russia's food needs to be imported!
In the same way, if you look at what Soviet Russia can export in the international market, the price of the product will inevitably remain low, and the price of what needs to be imported will inevitably be high!
This is economy, politics, and war. It is a fierce and cruel battlefield without gunpowder. On this battlefield, the two sides compete not for the victory of the two armies, nor the gains or losses of a city, but the United States and the Soviet Union. Russia's national luck! "
Tan Zhenhua finished this in one breath, feeling a little dry, so he lowered his head and took a sip of soda to moisturize his throat.
In the 1980s, the international situation was turbulent, and Xiangjiang’s economy was also full of twists and turns. At that time, people were in the situation, and they needed superhuman vision and skill to see through all of this. However, it will be different for later generations. There are countless of them. The keyboard man good deeds made a summary of the argument, after all, Zhuge Liang will do it after all.
But it was completely different in the ears of the two opposing people. It was like turning the clouds to see the sun and initiation!
Therefore, when Tan Zhenhua finished drinking the water and raised his head, he found two big eyes staring at him unblinkingly, radiating inexplicable light, and the look in his eyes made people panic. He was full of excitement. , Yelled: "What are you doing, why are you staring at me like this?"